Warming ocean waters are making it easier for storms to rapidly intensify, leading to heavier rainfall and higher storm surge when they make landfall.
COLUMBIA, S.C. — The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and forecasters warn it could be an above average year. This season could potentially produce up to 19 named storms and 5 major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
New data and digital tools are helping to explain how climate change is fueling more intense storms — and what that could mean for coastal communities across the Southeast and beyond.
Experts say oceans made warmer by human-caused climate change are powering stronger Atlantic hurricanes that carry heavier rainfall and higher storm surge when they make landfall. According to Climate Central, a nonprofit research group, these warming waters are making it easier for storms to rapidly intensify and sometimes this comes with devastating results.
About 80% of major hurricanes (Category 3-5) undergo rapid intensification. This is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt (about 35 mph) in a 24-hour period.
Research suggests that warmer sea surface temperatures may contribute to an increased fraction of tropical cyclones that undergo the rapid intensification process.
From 1980 to 2024, 186 landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones rapidly intensified above the 30 kt threshold.
Warmer air can hold more moisture, increasing the chances of heavier downpours that contribute to flooding.
Analysis by World Weather Attribution found that human-caused climate change intensified Hurricane Helene's record-breaking rainfall, which led to catastrophic flooding in both coastal and inland regions.
Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have increase globally and in the Atlantic, with further increases expected as warming continues.
This higher rainfall intensity, combined with the fact that climate change is enabling tropical cyclones to maintain more of their strength after making landfall, increases the risk of inland flooding.
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