What's next for the Red Sox after Rafael Devers trade?

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Congratulations, Red Sox: You won’t have to pay Rafael Devers a bunch of money when he (probably) isn’t very good anymore. You have successfully rid yourself of the unpleasant burden that is paying a player when he is well past his prime. More pertinently, you have shipped away a player whose inflexibility about his position proved too problematic to keep in the clubhouse. His unwillingness to pick up a glove to help the team in its time of need had pushed your relationship beyond repair, and now he’s gone. You did it. Hooray.

Now what?

For a franchise famously known for going eight-plus decades without a World Series, the Red Sox have had quite the surplus of success in the 21st century. Boston has won more World Series titles in the past 25 years than any other franchise — not to mention the gaudy collection of championships amassed by the city’s other sports teams — cementing a sky-high standard for a fan base that has come to expect not just competitiveness but also contention nearly every season.

But now, after a maddeningly uneven first 73 games and an industry-rattling trade that exported the team’s best hitter to the other league and other side of the country, the Red Sox are staring down the possibility of missing the postseason for a fourth consecutive year — something this franchise hasn’t done since 1991 to ‘94.

Or maybe not. Following an emphatic and invigorating series sweep of the Yankees, the Red Sox are above .500 for the first time since May 24 and have won five in a row for just the second time this season. Maybe the unpopular and bold decision to trade the face of the franchise and a world-class bat is the first in a series of moves that will better position this team for short- and long-term success. Or maybe the American League is wide-open enough that the Red Sox roster as currently constructed is good enough to snag a playoff spot.

Exactly how the Red Sox proceed from here is uncertain, but what’s clear is that some big-picture questions need to be answered sooner rather than later. Let’s dig into three of those now.

How do you replace one of the best hitters in baseball?

It’d be plenty difficult to replace Devers’ bat if the Red Sox had dealt him amidst one of his more standard seasons, one that saw his offensive stats rank among the 20-or-so best in baseball. But Devers has seemingly gone up a level this year. Since his bizarre 0-for-19 slump with 15 strikeouts to start the season, Devers has hit .292/.418/.542 with 15 homers in 68 games, good for a 162 wRC+ that ranks seventh in MLB over that span. Devers’ .389 wOBA, .400 xwOBA, 55.6% hard-hit rate and 16.8% walk rate are all career-best marks. He had been designated to hit, and he sure was hitting. Now he’ll likely keep hitting, but for another team, which means the bats still in Boston have some serious work to do to backfill Devers’ production.

The first task will be to identify a new designated hitter — or an assortment of hitters who can cycle through that spot. Having a rotation of sorts at DH is hardly uncommon, as it grants a manager the flexibility to deploy a deeper array of bats depending on the matchup and affords position players more days off their feet without taking them out of the lineup. At the same time, Devers was the rare slugger who warranted every-day reps at DH — he had started all 73 games this year for Boston — and replicating his production through any means is a tall task.

Alongside Alex Bregman, Devers formed one of the most dangerous 2-3 duos in the league. Now Devers is gone and Bregman is still on the injured list nursing a quad strain, leaving an enormous hole in the lineup. Jarren Duran has been solid as the leadoff man but notably worse than during his breakout campaign a year ago. Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez have performed admirably at first base in place of the injured Triston Casas. Rookie catcher Carlos Narvaez has been a revelation, but it’s hard to believe having him bat cleanup was ever Plan A. Veteran Trevor Story has shown modest signs of life recently after a wretched start to the season, but he’s hardly the impact bat he used to be. These players, among others, will need to step up their game at the plate if the offense is to stay afloat, particularly until Bregman returns.

Another fascinating character who could reemerge is Masataka Yoshida. In the third year of a five-year, $90 million contract and still on the injured list working his way back from shoulder surgery, Yoshida has faded into the background to an almost amusing degree amidst all the roster construction drama in Boston over the past few months. He was hitting in games during spring training but has had multiple setbacks in his attempts to throw at maximum effort, which have slowed his progress toward becoming a viable option in the outfield. Granted, it was and still is unclear how Yoshida would fit in the ultra-crowded Boston outfield even if able to throw. But with Devers gone, the DH role that Boston seemingly preferred for Yoshida is once again vacant. It might seem a bit strange to re-clog the DH spot with a hitter who, while perhaps underrated, is objectively much worse than Devers, but that might be the most obvious path forward for Boston given where things stand.

More broadly, the spotlight now burns even brighter on Boston’s heralded trio of top prospects: Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. Campbell raked in April before going ice-cold in May but has slowly started to rediscover his stride at the plate, albeit while still struggling mightily at second base. Mayer’s and Anthony’s careers are still in their infancy, with markedly less data than Campbell at the major-league level. No one is questioning these players’ star-level ceilings, but expecting them to approach their potential as rookies for a team with playoff aspirations feels like a lot to ask. On a team that is still without Bregman and just dealt away its best hitter, the kids have seemingly been given a vote of confidence that their time to make an impact is now. Let’s see how they respond.

How much will the players acquired from San Francisco help now and in the future?

It’s apparent that the frayed partnership between player and team and Devers’ potentially onerous contract were the driving forces behind this blockbuster transaction. But the Red Sox did receive four players in this deal, a quartet offering varying levels of promise moving forward. So, who are these guys?

Jordan Hicks is the most accomplished of the bunch, a 28-year-old flamethrower in his eighth major-league season. The Red Sox reportedly had interest in Hicks before the Giants signed him as a free agent two offseasons ago and made the decision to transition him to the rotation after years of coming out of the bullpen. That transition flatly failed, and now Hicks has a 6.47 ERA in the second year of a four-year, $44 million contract, the remainder of which now falls on the Red Sox.

Currently on the injured list due to a toe injury, Hicks last pitched on June 1. He still throws tremendously hard and gets a ton of groundballs, but he isn’t especially good at anything else; his command and ability to get whiffs remain poor. Hicks’ elite velocity unquestionably remains an attractive ingredient, but he hasn’t been an effective pitcher for a while. He immediately becomes a top-priority project for Boston’s pitching infrastructure to try to reestablish as a reliable relief option whenever he returns from injury.

Kyle Harrison, a 23-year-old left-hander with just 182 ⅔ major-league innings to his name, is a bigger upside play for Boston, as he’s not far removed from being one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and is under team control through the 2029 season. The Red Sox optioned Harrison to Triple-A upon acquiring him, but it’s reasonable to assume he could play a meaningful role in the big leagues at some point later this season.

Although his velocity has fluctuated since his call-up in 2023, Harrison’s heater is a truly terrific pitch when it’s sitting 95 mph, as it has more recently. He also throws from an unusually low arm angle, giving him a unique look for a starting pitcher. It’s now on Boston to help him round out the rest of his arsenal and develop starter-quality command to ensure a promising future in the middle of the Red Sox rotation for years to come. It’s unclear how much he’ll contribute this season and what role he’ll be deployed in if there are no rotation spots available, but Harrison is a talent worth getting excited about.

Outfielder James Tibbs III was my 11th-ranked prospect for the 2024 MLB Draft and was ultimately selected 13th overall by San Francisco. Without much added speed or defensive value — he played primarily first base and both corner outfield spots in college and has played exclusively right field as a pro — the lefty-hitting Tibbs’ calling card is his bat, which produced an epic statline (1.264 OPS) as a junior at Florida State en route to his first-round selection.

There were real concerns from scouts leading up to the draft about Tibbs’ ability to hit left-handed pitching, but he has done quite well so far this season in a small sample, with an .857 OPS overall in 57 games in the High-A Northwest League. That said, anyone who demolished high-level collegiate competition to the degree Tibbs did should be expected to hit well in A-ball. Double-A looms as a far more telling test that will help forecast Tibbs’ potential impact in Boston’s lineup. As for his defensive fit in Boston’s still overcrowded outfield depth chart … we’ll cross that road if/when we get there.

Jose Bello is the third pitcher heading to Boston in the Devers deal. The right-hander has been exceptionally effective early in the Arizona Complex League season (2.00 ERA in 18 IP, 28 K, 3 BB), working out of the bullpen in mostly multi-inning stints. At just 20 years old and yet to throw a pitch at a full-season affiliate, Bello is likely years away from contributing in the majors. He’s off to a promising start to his career, but he isn’t considered an elite prospect at this stage.

How will the Red Sox reallocate the money they no longer owe Devers, and how soon should we expect another move?

With San Francisco assuming the entirety of Devers’ contract, the Red Sox have cleared more than $250 million from their future books. In theory — and hopefully in practice — these savings can be reinvested in the roster in a significant way. But when? Doing that now would be next to impossible; it’s not like there are a bunch of All-Star free agents just hanging out in the middle of June.

That said, without a contract of such length and magnitude on their payroll for years to come, perhaps the Red Sox will be more comfortable pushing harder for a top free agent in the near future or pursuing another long-term extension with a key player already on the roster or finding a way to keep Bregman in Boston for the long haul if/when he opts out of his short-term pact after this season. Boston’s financial ceiling has been rather amorphous over the past half-decade. Devers’ presence on the roster last winter didn’t stop the team from reportedly being willing to offer $700 million to Juan Soto, but we’ve also seen the Red Sox act with self-imposed payroll restraints on multiple occasions in recent years.

Maybe the Sox spend big on a free agent this coming winter. Maybe they don’t. More pressing now will be how the front office retools a Devers-less lineup with a playoff berth still in mind. There’s little reason to take this trade as indication that the Red Sox will be sellers this July, but it’s fair to expect them to add further. Even with Devers out of the mix, this Red Sox roster is riddled with confusing conundrums and difficult puzzle pieces for the front office and coaching staff to put together. Perhaps the increased financial flexibility enables the team to add an expensive star veteran ahead of next month’s trade deadline, but we’re still weeks away from knowing what players will be available.

More simply, this is not a franchise that should use this dramatic Devers divorce as a sign that this season is suddenly a year of transition, rather than one of contention. More moves must be on the way in short order, someway, somehow. Based on what we’ve seen from this franchise in recent years, I feel pretty good that there’s plenty more drama to come.

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